Maize and the market

In a warehouse in the centre of one of Zambia’s farming districts, several kilometres away from Lusaka, thousands of bags of maize are stacked. All maize is rotten and will be destroyed. This destruction of food is a calamity for a country where the UN estimates 64 percent of its people are still incapable of placing two meals on the table. In Zambia, the average rural farmer is estimated to survive on less than US$2 (K10,000) per day.

Across the country, hundreds of thousands of tonnes of maize are rotting away or being destroyed. Zambia simply does not have enough storage facilities nor is there an adequate road network to transport maize.

Vice-President Guy Scott recently said: “We have two million tonnes of maize against storage facilities that are meant for 300,000 tonnes of maize, so with poor storage, it gets rotten.” Even schools have reportedly been converted into makeshift warehouses to deal with the overflow.

A problem are the Government subsidies, a programme which provides cheap fertiliser to maize farmers and a government policy to then buy the crop at above-market rates. Zambia moved to increase its food production back in 2004 following a hugely problematic food crisis in 2002. Further hit by the spike in world food prices in 2008 when the cost of maize increased by more than 100 percent compared to 2006, the government again sought to increase production. The new government has continued to subsidise maize production Government subsidies, introduced by the late President Levy Mwanawasa around 2004 to ensure the country grew enough of its own food, have encouraged farmers to boost their maize production. The policy has been so successful that the country has turned itself from an importer of food to an exporter.

But the subsidies are also aimed at reducing poverty, and by this measurement, many argue they have failed.  The World Bank urged the Zambian government to stop subsidising the maize crop, saying it was unsustainable long-term and not addressing the core problem – feeding the poor.
“Current maize prices encourage mono cropping at the expense of crop diversification. Job creation through economic diversification, which is the goal of this government, is unlikely to be achieved if government pursues the same policy in the agricultural sector as that of the previous government. This old policy has not resulted in significant reduction in rural poverty and job creation...Lower prices will not only reduce the cost of living for the poorer Zambians but will also benefit the livestock industry. Low prices will also contribute to the development of a sustainable maize export business, which will allow Zambia to become the bread basket in the region.” Zambian maize bought above market value at about US$12 for a 50kg bag (US$300 per tonne) meant it off loads onto the local and export market at a loss.

Zambia has nearly 1.5m smallholder farmers. It is this rural population that makes up the majority of the country’s poor. But the study shows that the smallest farmers, those farming less than one hectare, increased their maize the least, by an average of just three 50kg bags. The farmers that benefited the most from subsidised fertilizer were those that farmed over five hectares. It is the same with the government’s policy of buying maize at a premium – as two thirds of smallholder farmers do not sell their maize crop there are few that benefit from this government handout. Money spent subsidising farming would be much better spent on other things targeted at the rural poor. With the same amount of money more than 50 new high schools could be constructed and 10,000 more teachers employed. The number of health workers could be doubled for instance.

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Climate Change in Malawi

Malawi has in the past six years enjoyed maize surpluses yet food production has been on the decline, a climate change study has indicated.

Rainfall distribution in Malawi has become more unpredictable to the extent that it has reduced crop production, Malawi’s Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development hydrologist Henrie Manford Njoloma has disclosed in his research study of over 60 years of rainfall data in the sub Saharan country. “Rainfall distribution is no longer uniform and predictable as it used to be in the past,” he says noting that maize, the country’s staple diet has been drastically affected by the erratic rainfall patterns.

Maize is a highly politicized crop in Malawi because of its nature as a main food crop. As such, government interferes either directly or indirectly in its production and trade at all levels. The private sector also responds sharply whenever there is a maize shortage. Malawi faces food insecurity problems despite having a lot of water resources in sub-Saharan region. It has Lake Malawi, Africa’s third largest lake, which takes up 20% of its land mass and is mostly in the central and northern parts of the country. There are smaller lakes of Chilwa and Malombe in the south and many rivers across the country.

Njoloma observes that despite maize output increasing by 1.8% per annum between 1961 and 1991, the yields have been lower than the 5-year annual average of 2,192,634 metric tons in the first three years, albeit increasing to above the 5-year average in the later years. The hydrologist says that the rainfall pattern in these rainfall seasons were some of the worst, punctuated with many longer than normal dry spells. He also notes that the production of maize per unit area also had increased. Government documents suggest that about 75% of the estimated increase in total production resulted from the expansion in maize area but does not indicate the role of favorable climatic conditions. “Overall, yields appear to have increased at a small but significant rate of 0.4% per year,” says Njoloma adding, “The per capita maize production, however, declined over the past half century as production lagged behind an exponential annual population growth rate of over 3.0%”.

He observes that various water schemes gather dust on the drawing board while less than 1% of the country is irrigated. According to a 2004-2005 Integrated Household Survey (IHS) report, modern methods of irrigation are almost nonexistent in most households in Malawi. “There has been low priority in irrigation agricultural production despite the increased publicity the sector has been given over the past 15 years,” notes the hydrologist urging government to initiate efforts that would ensure that rainfalls into the country’s catchments are looked at to recharge water resources such as wetlands, rivers, dams and lakes. “With the right infrastructure and proper institutions in place, erratic rainfall trends could easily be mitigated and maize grain shortages would be avoided,”

http://www.newstimeafrica.com/archives/24855

Maize production down in Kenya

Costly farm inputs , such as the price of fertiliser , plus insecurity in Kenya's key food production regions are threatening the country with starvation, agricultural experts warn.

Farmers displaced by post-election conflict and cattle-rustling are hesitant to return to their pieces of land because of fears of a possible replay of the violence. As a result, about half of the agricultural land in North Rift, the key maize producing area, has not been prepared for the planting season this month . In Trans Nzoia, which normally produces 60 per cent of the country's maize requirements, agricultural experts forecast a deficit of 500,000 bags - if conditions favour farmers. However, the figure could be as high as three million bags. In Uasin Ngishu, North Rift, the area agricultural officer Grace Kirui predicts a shortfall of 600,000 bags this year. And in Kericho, only one third of the farmers have planted, according to the district agricultural officer Khadija Baraza. Thus, the country may be faced with a five million-bag food deficit - a situation that threatens to wipe out the current grain reserves by August. Some farmers in Lugari, Uasin Ngishu and Trans Nzoia are already anticipating severe shortages by July and are holding on to their maize until the producer price goes up.

Climate Change and Crops

Climate change could cause severe crop losses in South Asia and southern Africa over the next twenty years, a study in the journal Science says.

The findings suggest southern Africa could lose more than 30% of its main crop, maize, by 2030. In South Asia losses of many regional staples, such as rice, millet and maize could top 10%.

"For poor farmers on the margin of survival, these losses could really be crushing," said co-author Marshall Burke, also of Stanford University.

The study used computer models to assess the impact of climate change on farming in 12 world regions where the bulk of the world's malnourished people live. This included much of Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, the Caribbean and Central and South America. All the models agree that there will be adverse effects on maize in southern Africa and rice in South-East Asia, but the picture is less certain in other areas such as parts of West Africa where it is unclear how global warming will impact the local climate.

Maize economics

In Swaziland more than a third of the population is in need of food aid, after its worst ever harvest, said a UN food agencies' report.A prolonged dry spell has left around 400,000 vulnerable people in need of approximately 40,000 metric tonnes of food assistance until the next harvest in April 2008 . This year's maize crop is nearly 60 per cent below last year's level, both reducing the availability of food as well as resulting in price surges that will curtail many families' access to food in the country where nearly seven out of ten people live on less than $1 per day.

Meantime in Zambia saw maize prices increase at least three times in the last quarter of 2006, with a 25kg bag selling for as much as US$11, making it unaffordable for the majority of the population, two thirds of which live on a $1 or less a day.

"Most of us can't afford a 25kg bag of mealie meal because we have no money... and there are no jobs, we are forced to buy pamelas (the local name for 1kg mealie meal packs) every day." Martha Daka, a street trader in the capital Lusaka, said.

Analysts said the torrential rains late last year and earlier this year, which swamped thousands of fields in at least five of the nine provinces, would likely hit maize production. About 1.4 million people were affected by the flooding and about 300,000 people, mostly in the agricultural producing rural areas, required food aid. Even without an accurate assessment of the expected harvest, the government has begun exports to neighbouring Zimbabwe, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

While in Kenya the favourite food is ugali. Ugali is the Swahili word for porridge, a milled and cooked form of maize. Served with meat, it is a staple on most menus in local restaurants. It is also the mainstay of agriculture in Kenya. More than 70 percent of farmers are women. Yet in most instances they lack legal ownership of the land. Women might till the land, sow the seeds and harvest the crop, but they often do not see the fruits of their labour. The money ends up in the pockets of their husbands or male relatives.

"Due to natural disasters, such as floods and droughts, some areas cannot even produce enough maize for their own consumption..." said Elizabeth Muemi Kio of Oxfam Kenya

Wanjohi of the Edith Makandi Wanjohi of the International Gender and Trade Network points out that Genetically Modified technology has encouraged monoculture, eroding genetic diversity and "concentrating the benefits of 'new' varieties in the hands of commercial companies, all at the expense of poor farmers". Farmers now have to pay royalties for the varieties they buy."...poor performance has increased and led to the import of genetically modified foods and the dumping of food on the Kenyan market. As a result, farmers can no longer sell their produce at a good market price,"

The world market dominates all the way down to the individual .The value of maize is its exchange value , to be bought and sold as a commodity , and not to be as something to feed people to keep them alive .