Tuesday, April 02, 2019

Population Projections

Approximately three-dozen countries, largely in sub-Saharan Africa, are projected to more than quadruple during this century according to the United Nations medium variant. Africa’s largest country Nigeria, for example, is projected to have its population sextuple over the 21st century, from 122 million at its start to 794 million at its close.

The country with the most rapid rate of projected population growth is Niger. Its population is expected to increase seventeen-fold over the 21st century, from 11 million to 192 million, again according to the medium variant. If fertility were to decline more rapidly, the low variant, from its current 7 births per woman to 4 births per woman by mid-century and to the replacement level of 2 births per woman by the century’s close, Niger’s population would increase nearly thirteen-fold to 144 million during the century. Moreover, even if its fertility rate were to fall immediately to the replacement level, the instant replacement variant, Niger’s population is projected to triple to 37 million over the 21st century.

In terms of absolute numbers, ten countries account for 62 percent of the projected world population growth between today and the close of the century, which is approximately 3.5 billion according to the United Nations medium variant (Figure 4). Of those countries, the top five contributors to population growth in the 21st century are in sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria (17 percent), Democratic Republic of Congo (9 percent), Tanzania (7 percent), Niger (5 percent), Uganda (5 percent), India (4 percent), Pakistan (4 percent), Angola (4 percent), Ethiopia (4 percent) and the United States (3 percent).


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