The Hunger threat is not only at the Horn of Africa and in the Sahel but is a growing risk in Southern African nations.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to become more widespread in areas of southern Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique, as well as areas of Angola, and much of Zimbabwe, due to compounding impacts of poor 2021/22 rainfall, tropical cyclones, and domestic economic declines starting in October.
Food security outcomes are expected to be most severe in southwestern Madagascar, where Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are likely also starting in October. The population in need is likely to steadily increase through early 2023.
Conflict in northern Mozambique remains the primary driver of acute food insecurity with the disruption to livelihood activities. In Mozambique, Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces experienced an escalation of militia attacks in September. According to IOM, more than 15,400 people were displaced between late August and late September.
Food prices are increasing as more households rely on markets for food, especially in areas where production deficits were observed in 2022. This year, price increases are accelerated by high fuel prices linked to high global prices. Prices of maize grain are 70 to 180 percent above the five-year average in Malawi and up to 42 percent higher than the average in Mozambique.
In Zimbabwe, food prices are expected to remain above the five-year average throughout the lean season.
In Madagascar’s southern drought-affected areas, dried cassava prices are 67 percent higher than average. In most countries, inflation has also been increasing, likely triggering more price increases for food. Poor households in most deficit areas will continue struggling to access food commodities on the market due to weak purchasing power.