Africa has achieved much progress, but many challenges
remain - including inequalities in income, politics and between groups. Far
from a continued scramble for Africa, as some analysts exalted only a few years
ago, we're far more likely to see a potential re-marginalisation of sub-Saharan
Africa in the years ahead. Three factors underpin this.
The first is changes in China - today Africa's largest
trading partner, but a country whose own economic rebalancing has reduced its
thirst for commodities. This is, of course, temporary. Eventually India's
economic awakening should drive the next commodities super-cycle and Africa
should regain some of its lost momentum. But that is still some years hence. In
the meantime, global growth elsewhere remains anaemic and insufficient to
replace China's previous demand for Africa's natural resources.
Saudi Arabia's determination to protect its global share of
the oil market, resulting in an oil price per barrel hovering below US$30, has
hit Africa's oil producers very hard. Large oil producers such as Nigeria and
Angola have seen their main source of revenue slashed and others, including
aspirant and marginal producers - such as Ghana - face strong headwinds. Countries
such as Tanzania and Mozambique, who were counting on the potential of huge oil
and gas incomes, have discovered that interest in exploiting their natural
bounty has waned.
Together with the impact of the shale revolution in the USA,
Africa's oil is not in current demand and this has translated into economic
pain and strategic marginalisation, particularly for West Africa.
Secondly, development assistance aimed at promoting
inclusive growth, poverty alleviation, infrastructure development and good
governance (traditionally from the West) is being decimated as Europe scrambles
to respond to crises in Syria and elsewhere. Millions of poor Africans stand
the risk of losing the sustenance provided by humanitarian and development
assistance at a time when their own governments do not provide. Sub-Saharan
Africa faces large constraints on the capacity of governments to deliver on
development .Business and the private sector, we are told, have to step up and
assume their rightful place as the drivers of poverty alleviation, humanitarian
assistance and employment creation. By default, the private sector is
interested in profit. Without appropriate regulation and oversight, its role
exacerbates divisions rather than promoting inclusive growth.
The third factor relates to a change in global patterns of
political violence. Great power games have shifted to the Middle East. The
Sunni/Shia divide now pits Saudi Arabia against Iran in an ever-widening series
of proxy wars, in a region that is geo-strategically important, heavily armed,
politically unstable and already host to an important number of proxy wars. Subsequently,
for the next few years, sub-Saharan Africa may get less attention and less
money. Rather than providing a breathing space for autocrats who believe in
their right to govern indefinitely, we believe that the pressure from below
will increase. Instability is moving from rebellions in distant rural districts
to urban areas as social protest and violence around elections continue to
rise. Expectations from African citizens are high and leaders will inevitably
struggle to respond to the demands of their young, restless and connected urban
populace; who are better educated than before, but with few employment
prospects.
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